The Importance of Understanding the Economic Baseline

After my article, “The Danger of leaders Not Listening“, I was asked why I thought many see the economy as struggling, despite signs of growth. I believe this sentiment stems largely from the significant changes brought about by COVID-19. When comparing pre-COVID prices to current ones, they are indisputably higher, reflecting an increased cost of living. The economic baseline from before COVID no longer applies.

Historical events like the post-WWII growth period show how economic baselines need reassessment after major disruptions.

The impact on cost of living during the two world wars. Need to understand the economic baseline.
The Impact on Cost of Living During the Two World Wars

Unfortunately, no one has clearly explained to the average American how COVID-19 affected the cost of living (and GDP). People blame the government for not controlling costs, but it’s challenging amid such upheavals. After events like COVID-19, a major realignment occurs, and the economy begins to grow again from this new baseline.

One major factor in the economy’s struggle is the shift to a more digital and remote lifestyle.

This transition was accelerated by COVID-19, forcing many businesses and industries to adapt quickly in order to survive. This resulted in job loss for some and increased competition for others, leading to financial instability and uncertainty.

Additionally, the pandemic highlighted existing inequalities within our society, particularly in terms of access to resources and opportunities. COVID-19’s economic impact hit marginalized communities harder, making recovery from the pandemic’s disruptions even more difficult.

Furthermore, there were concerns about inflation as a result of the massive amounts of government stimulus put into place during the pandemic. This led to fears of rising prices and a decrease in purchasing power for individuals and businesses.

To understand the economic struggles, we must also consider COVID-19’s psychological impact on consumer behavior.

Many people were more cautious with their spending, prioritizing essential items over non-essential purchases. This change in consumer behavior greatly affected businesses and their ability to thrive in that economic climate.

Overall, it is clear that COVID-19 had a significant impact on the economy and its recovery. Leaders must acknowledge the challenges and find sustainable solutions for both current struggles and long-term impacts. As we continue to navigate the pandemic’s impact, individuals should educate themselves on economic changes and adapt. Only then can we work towards a more stable and resilient economic future.

The effects of COVID-19 will be felt for years, so leaders should listen to concerns and address them proactively.

This includes supporting those most affected by the pandemic and implementing policies that promote economic growth and stability.

WWII as a Disruptive Event

The last major event to impact the economy like COVID (rapid GDP swings), with widespread business shutdowns and supply limitations, was World War II. Before WWII, the cost of living was lower due to economic stability and fewer disruptions. However, the war introduced significant shifts in production, supply and demand, and heightened government intervention, all of which influenced prices. After the war ended and production returned to normal, prices remained higher than before, resulting in a new economic baseline.

Like COVID-19, the aftermath of WWII required reassessing economic baselines for growth and stability. This teaches us to focus not only on short-term recovery but also on long-term solutions for a sustainable economy. Leaders then had to listen to individuals’ concerns, and it’s crucial for leaders today to do the same to guide us through uncertainty.

What Is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)?

Gross domestic product (GDP) represents the total monetary value or market worth of all finished goods and services produced within a country during a specific time period. Serving as a broad indicator of a nation’s overall economic output, GDP acts as a comprehensive measure of the country’s economic health.

Before World War II, the U.S. GDP was stable, but it surged as the country ramped up production for a wartime economy, retooling factories and hiring workers. After the war, GDP experienced a significant decline as factories adapted to a peacetime economy, leading to reduced production and substantial layoffs.

GDP fluctuation during and after WW2. The economic baseline changed.
GDP Fluctuation During and After WW2

Before COVID, the U.S. GDP was stable following the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis. However, when the pandemic struck, GDP plummeted as production halted and businesses closed. As the pandemic receded, GDP soared with the resumption of business activities, restaurant openings, and more. This resurgence caused a notable increase in GDP, leading to a higher cost of living and rising prices.

The chart illustrates that from 2020 to 2024, there were fluctuations reflecting the adverse cost of living impacts faced by the average American.

GDP fluctuation during and after COVID. The economic baseline changed.
GDP Fluctuation from 2020 to 2024

Volatile GDP fluctuations challenge wage growth, making it hard to keep pace. Despite GDP surpassing pre-COVID levels, wage and price stabilization is only now emerging. As the economy continues to recover, workers continue to grapple with stagnant wages and increasing living costs.

In conclusion, both COVID-19 and World War II serve as prominent examples of major events that have significantly disrupted the economy. These disruptions not only create short-term challenges but also require a reassessment and adaptation to new economic baselines in order for long-term stability and growth to occur. Understanding the impacts of these events on GDP is crucial in navigating through these changes and creating sustainable solutions for the future. So, it is essential to constantly monitor GDP and make necessary adjustments in response to major disruptions, ensuring a stronger and more resilient economy for all.

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Clarence Darrow and the Importance of Presentation

Clarence Darrow is celebrated as one of history’s most accomplished lawyers, largely due to his distinctive courtroom style. More than an eloquent speaker, his flair for dramatic performances was pivotal to his success. His ability to captivate juries with a commanding presence significantly boosted his extraordinary achievements. Learning from Darrow, the way you present yourself in business can enhance your chances of success.

Judge overlooking Clarence Darrow’s theatrics in court – 1924

Darrow’s courtroom style was renowned for its passion and persuasiveness.

He believed in the power of storytelling and often used anecdotes to connect with juries and evoke empathy. This approach not only made him a master advocate but also revolutionized legal presentations.

“The world is made up for the most part of morons and natural tyrants, sure of themselves, strong in their own opinions, never doubting anything.” – Clarence Darrow

Beyond the courtroom, Darrow’s legacy continues to inspire professionals from all walks of life. His powerful public speaking skills serve as a valuable lesson for business leaders who want to make a strong impression on their audience. By using storytelling, personal anecdotes, and captivating delivery, one can effectively convey a message and influence others. Darrow’s fearless approach to tackling challenging cases also teaches us the importance of taking risks and standing up for what we believe in, even if it goes against societal norms.

In business, telling a compelling story can be crucial in securing deals, partnerships, or funding.

People are more likely to remember and be swayed by a well-crafted narrative than by dry facts and figures. Additionally, a strong, commanding presence can leave a lasting impression on potential clients or investors.

Beyond his theatrical performances, Darrow was recognized for his unwavering dedication to defending the underdog and fighting for justice. He took on unpopular cases and challenged societal norms, often facing backlash. Yet, his resolve to fight for his beliefs earned him respect from both colleagues and opponents.

In the business world, standing up for your values and beliefs, even when they diverge from popular opinion, is vital. By staying true to your principles, you can earn respect from peers and establish yourself as trustworthy.

Clarence Darrow’s legacy teaches us that powerful storytelling, a strong presence, and dedication can lead to success in both the courtroom and boardroom. When presenting or pitching an idea, channel your inner Clarence Darrow and captivate your audience with your unique style. As Darrow himself said, “The only real lawyers are trial lawyers.” In business, effective communication and persuasion can make all the difference in achieving your goals.

In conclusion, Clarence Darrow’s influence extends far beyond the realm of law. His mastery of storytelling, commanding presence, and steadfast beliefs are valuable lessons for anyone looking to excel in their field. By embracing these qualities and incorporating them into your own style, you too can achieve extraordinary success in both personal and professional endeavors. So instead of viewing Darrow as solely a “lawyer,” let us remember him as a trailblazer and inspiration for all professionals striving for excellence.

But was Clarence Darrow considered a good person?

It is debatable whether Clarence Darrow was considered a good person. While he undoubtedly had a great legal mind and made significant contributions to the field of law, his personal life and actions have been highly controversial. He often defended clients accused of heinous crimes, including murder, which some viewed as morally questionable. Additionally, Darrow was known for taking on cases purely for publicity or financial gain rather than solely for justice. However, others argue that his dedication to defending the underprivileged and fighting against social injustices outweigh any negative aspects. Ultimately, it is up to individual interpretation whether Darrow can be considered a “good” person or not. So, while he may have been a master in the courtroom, his character remains a topic of debate.

Nevertheless, Darrow’s impact on the legal profession cannot be denied. His defense of controversial clients and his use of innovative tactics set a precedent for future lawyers to challenge traditional methods and push boundaries. In addition, Darrow’s belief in rehabilitation instead of harsh punishment greatly influenced criminal justice reform movements. He was also an advocate for civil rights and fought against discrimination based on race and religion.

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How Lack of Diversity at the Top Impacts All

I recently encountered a January 1949 article about Harry Truman and the 81st Congress, featuring a photograph of the newly elected Democratic Senators. At that time, Democrats had just regained control of both the House and the Senate. The image was captivating, showing Lyndon Johnson and Hubert Humphrey at the start of their Senate careers—future president and vice president. More striking, though, was the evident lack of diversity, highlighting limited representation in Congress and the Senate during the 1940s. This absence reflected the policies, rights, and societal makeup of the nation then, a time when racial and gender discrimination were the norm, dominated by white men.

The 1949 newly elected Senators including Lyndon Johnson and Herbert Humphrey

Since then, we have made significant strides in promoting diversity and inclusion in politics.

The United States elected its first African American president, Barack Obama, and Kamala Harris became the first female Asian American Vice President. Additionally, there is a record number of women and people of color now serving in Congress. This progress highlights the hard work and dedication of activists, leaders, and citizens who have fought for equal representation and rights.

However, despite this progress, much work remains.

The lack of diversity in politics is an ongoing issue that requires attention. Though representation from marginalized communities has increased, major barriers still hinder full participation in the political process. These include systemic racism, voter suppression, and unequal access to resources.

To continue advancing towards a more diverse and inclusive government, it is essential to recognize and address these issues. We must ensure equal opportunities for all to run for office and be heard, regardless of race, gender, or socio-economic status. This involves investing in community outreach, increasing local government representation, and promoting diversity in political parties.

Moreover, diversity in politics goes beyond mere representation.

It involves creating an inclusive environment where diverse perspectives are valued, by promoting open dialogue and listening to marginalized communities. This helps develop policies that better reflect the diverse population they serve.

Consider how lack of diversity translates into the business world.

If the leadership of your organization were homogenous, with similar ideas, the company would mirror that lack of diversity. This lack of diversity can lead to blind spots, limiting the company’s potential for growth and success. In contrast, a diverse team brings varied perspectives and experiences to the table, leading to more innovation and creativity.

In conclusion, despite progress in promoting diversity and inclusion in politics, much work remains. We must keep striving for equal representation and ensure all voices are heard in government. By doing so, we can create a more just society and pave the way for future generations of diverse leaders. This mindset should also extend beyond politics into all areas of society, as embracing diversity builds stronger communities and a better world for all. Let us continue moving forward on this journey towards equality and inclusivity.

Click here for a post on how to handle inheriting an organization that’s not diverse.

The Charismatic Leader: Look Beyond the Surface

A charismatic leader emerged, resonating with those who felt disenfranchised by political and economic systems or believed the government was unsupportive. Initially small, his following grew quickly as he toured the nation, captivating audiences with fiery speeches and promises of change. He frequently exaggerated or distorted facts about the nation’s condition, painting a dire picture of a country in crisis. His claims suggested that government leaders were more focused on opposing and controlling the populace than helping them, a narrative that, despite inaccuracies, gained traction among those feeling neglected by traditional politics.

This rhetoric fueled a political movement, leading to street protests, marches, and an attempted violent overthrow of the government.

The uprising was swiftly and harshly suppressed, with its organizers and many protesters rounded up and imprisoned. However, the leader, thanks to his influential connections among sympathetic judges and politicians, managed to evade severe repercussions. He cleverly used his legal battles and convictions for inciting violence to portray himself as a martyr, claiming the government unjustly targeted him and warning followers they might be next. This narrative was consistently spread at rallies, in pamphlets, and on the radio, resonating across the nation. With each event, his audience grew, drawn by the view of him as a savior who could deliver them from troubles and restore the country’s former glory.

The leader exploited the situation at the overwhelmed borders, where migrants sought refuge, to stoke fear and resentment.

He targeted these impoverished individuals as scapegoats for the country’s problems, further polarizing the public. He also blamed other politicians for the nation’s economic and social woes, making them targets for his fiercely loyal followers.

Over time, this leader’s political movement grew to be one of the largest and most loyal in the country.

Riding a wave of support, this charismatic leader was elected and quickly dismantled the constitution, reshaping the government to prevent challenges to his authority. He became a dictator with total control, silencing dissent and ensuring no one could question his actions. Critics of the leader were systematically persecuted, yet his followers remained steadfastly loyal, driven by his charisma and promises.

Aspiring to make the country the world’s strongest, he allied with global leaders sharing his authoritarian vision. However, unchecked control led to corruption, and he overstepped with reckless policies, spiraling the country into destruction. The nation, once proud, lay in ruins, devastated by war and strife, needing a rebuild with a democratic framework for future stability and hope.

The leader in question is Adolf Hitler, and the nation he led to ruin is Germany.

In conclusion, we must remember the past and remain vigilant against the potential consequences of dire circumstances. Charismatic leaders possess both positive and negative traits, warranting close scrutiny. Our nation has encountered numerous challenges, yet its resilience continually shines through. United by a shared history and common values, our diverse and determined people will choose the right path forward. With collective strength and unwavering resolve, we can overcome any adversity we face.

Click here for a post on Lincoln’s battle for emancipation – the Demon of Unrest.

How Far We’ve Come: The Evolution of Computer Programming

The evolution of computer programming has been amazing. Reflecting on my time as a computer programmer in the late 1970s and early 1980s, it was a challenging era for programmers. Writing a program, especially in COBOL, required meticulous effort. We used coding sheets, and each 80-column line had to be precisely typed onto a punch card. This deck of cards, representing a program, was then fed into the computer by a reader in the computer room. We received a printed listing showing the program’s compilation results and any errors. Of course this was all for batch processing systems. So, it was necessary to create flowcharts for both the application and its integration into the overall process flow.

The COBOL coding sheet
COBOL Application Coding Sheet
The IBM 80-Column Punch Card
IBM 80-Column Punch Card
The IBM Punch Card Machine
IBM Punch Card Machine

When I embarked on my computer programming journey, I transitioned from the IBM System/360 to the IBM System/370 mainframe.

This upgrade brought numerous new features, including the ability to input programs via the IBM 3270 terminal. The System/370 initially had a 24-bit physical address space, limiting its memory to 16 MB. Its page table entries boasted a 12-bit page frame address for 4 KB pages. This was a critical consideration as we ventured into the early stages of online program processing. Consequently, the concept of swapping or sharing memory became an essential factor in application development.

Evolution of Computer Programming - the IBM Card Reader
The IBM Card Reader – don’t drop that deck
Evolution of Computer Programming - the IBM 3270 Monitor
The IBM 3270 Green Screen Terminal

With the ongoing advancement of technology, the programming world evolved significantly. The advent of personal computers introduced unprecedented convenience and efficiency for programmers. No longer reliant on punch cards or mainframe terminals, we could now write code directly on our desktops. This shift paved the way for client-server architecture and the development of CICS (Customer Information Control System) online applications.

The internet’s advent in the 1990s marked a transformative era in programming, with web development as a new frontier.

Languages such as HTML, CSS, and JavaScript became essential tools for crafting globally accessible websites and applications. This evolution unlocked numerous opportunities for programmers and spurred further technological advancements. The transition from client-heavy applications to more distributed systems facilitated the creation of truly distributed applications, enhancing efficiency and performance. It significantly improved the end-user experience, enhancing creativity and user-friendliness in Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs).

Evolution of Computer Programming - IBM 370 Computer Room in 1980's
Live System/370 Computer Room in the 1980’s

I vividly recall participating in another computer upgrade from the System/370 to System/390.

Walking through the data center in the early ’90s, I was struck by the room’s vastness and the many devices essential for computing. Tape drives, DASD (Direct Access Storage Device) devices, network controllers, control panels, and countless printers filled the space. It was an awe-inspiring sight, a testament to how far technology had advanced in just a few decades.

Today, the evolution of computer programming continues, with programming an essential part of daily life with everything from smartphones to cars relying on complex software systems. The tools and technologies for programmers have evolved greatly, making writing code faster and more efficient than ever. However, the core principles of programming remain the same – attention to detail, problem-solving skills, and a never-ending thirst for learning.

Reflecting on my programming days, I’m amazed at how far technology has come and how it continually improves our world.

It is truly an exciting time to be a programmer, with endless possibilities for innovation and growth. While methods have evolved from punch cards to keyboards and coding sheets to IDEs, the passion for creating impactful innovations remains constant in every programmer’s journey.

Here’s to the evolution of computer programming—a field that continually shapes our world in unimaginable ways. Let’s embrace new technologies and push boundaries, striving for progress and innovation in this ever-changing landscape. Advancements in technology will offer more opportunities for programmers to create and innovate, making it an exciting time to be in this field. Looking to the future, who knows what amazing advancements await us? One thing is certain – programmers will be at the forefront, driving change and shaping our world.

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